HDB Resale Price Growth Likely to Stay Modest in 2026 as Supply Rises

HDB Resale Price Growth Likely to Stay Modest in 2026 as Supply Rises

Dec 10, 2025

CONDOsingapore.com

Singapore’s HDB resale market is expected to see only modest price growth in 2026, as a larger supply of flats and softer demand help contain price pressures.

Analysts expect resale prices of Housing & Development Board flats to rise by around 1 to 5 per cent next year. This follows a clear slowdown in 2025, when resale prices rose 2.9 per cent in the first nine months. That was much slower than the 9.7 per cent increase recorded in 2024 and the 4.9 per cent rise in 2023.

The pace of growth has already cooled sharply. HDB resale prices rose just 0.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, the slowest quarterly increase in five years. For the first nine months of the year, prices rose 2.9 per cent, compared with 6.9 per cent over the same period in 2024 and 3.8 per cent in 2023.

A key reason for the moderation is the strong supply of new flats. Demand has been diverted to the Build-To-Order market, where more than 30,000 new flats were offered across three BTO and Sale of Balance Flats exercises in 2025. These exercises attracted about 100,000 applicants, the highest in three years.

From 2021 to 2025, HDB launched 102,433 BTO flats, or an average of about 20,487 units a year. This level of supply is comparable to the 2011 to 2014 period, when more than 100,000 flats were launched. During that earlier period, the sharp increase in BTO supply eventually helped cool the resale market, with resale prices easing from 2013 to 2019.

There are early signs that a similar effect may be emerging now. With more buyers turning to new flats, demand in the resale market has softened. Policy changes have also helped. Since October 2024, singles have been allowed to buy two-room Flexi BTO flats islandwide, while more flats have been allocated to second-timer families. These changes have reduced some pressure on resale demand.

Another factor affecting the market is the lower number of flats reaching their minimum occupation period. Around 8,000 flats are expected to reach MOP in 2025, the lowest number in a decade and down from 11,952 in 2024. With fewer newer flats entering the resale market, their impact on the overall resale price index has been smaller.

For the full year of 2025, analysts expect HDB resale prices to grow by around 3 to 4.5 per cent.

Mature estates have continued to outperform non-mature towns. As at Nov 24, the average resale price in mature estates stood at S$703,563, up 7 per cent year on year. In non-mature estates, the average resale price was S$615,696, up 5 per cent. However, the price gap between mature and non-mature estates has narrowed over time. Compared with a gap of more than 20 per cent in 2017 and 2018, the difference has fallen to the low- to mid-teens in recent years.

Newer flats remain a major driver of price growth. Flats aged 15 years and below saw prices rise 4.3 per cent in the first nine months of 2025, while flats aged 16 to 25 years posted a 6.2 per cent increase. Older flats recorded more modest growth, as buyers remained cautious about lease decay and the discontinuation of the Selective En bloc Redevelopment Scheme. Uncertainty over the long-term value of older flats has made buyers more price-sensitive.

Even as the broader market slows, million-dollar HDB transactions are still rising.

Flash estimates from SRX and 99.co showed that 120 flats were sold for at least S$1 million in November, up from 87 in October. These transactions are usually concentrated in prime, city-fringe or well-connected locations, particularly where flats have long remaining leases.

For some buyers, such flats remain attractive because they are still significantly cheaper than private homes in the same area. In Bukit Merah, for example, million-dollar flats of 100 to 119 square metres averaged about S$1.2 million in the year to Nov 24. This was far below the average price of about S$3.4 million for new condos of similar size in the area, and also below the S$2.3 million average for resale condos.

Huttons expects around 1,550 million-dollar HDB transactions in 2025, almost 50 per cent more than in 2024. Centrally located flats that recently fulfilled their MOP and were less than 10 years old accounted for about 32 per cent of these deals. These flats are especially attractive because they are newer, centrally located and not subject to the tighter resale restrictions that apply to newer Prime and Plus flats.

However, there are signs of price resistance. The average price of million-dollar flats is estimated at S$1.14 million in 2025, only slightly above the S$1.12 million average in 2024. Fewer new benchmark prices were set this year compared with 2024, suggesting that buyers are becoming more cautious.

Million-dollar transactions also remain a small portion of the overall resale market. They accounted for about 6 per cent of the 21,412 resale transactions in the first 10 months of 2025. By comparison, about 20.6 per cent of deals were in the S$750,000 to S$1 million range, while more than 70 per cent were below S$750,000.

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The BTO “lottery effect” remains strong. Not every flat that reaches MOP sells for S$1 million, but many owners still enjoy significant gains. In non-mature estates, some BTO owners may be able to sell their flats for around double their original purchase price. In mature and central estates such as Kallang/Whampoa, Toa Payoh and Queenstown, gains can be even larger.

At St George’s Towers in Kallang/Whampoa, for example, 33 four-room flats were sold for at least S$1 million as at Nov 24. Their resale prices averaged about S$1.12 million, compared with original BTO prices of S$459,000 to S$574,000. This suggests that some sellers may have made gains of around S$600,000.

High-profile projects have also shaped market expectations. The Pinnacle @ Duxton was the first BTO project to cross the S$1 million resale mark in 2015. Since then, such transactions have helped reinforce seller expectations, especially for flats in prime locations with strong design, connectivity and long leases.

The government has introduced tighter rules for Plus and Prime flats to reduce this lottery effect. These include a 10-year MOP and subsidy recovery upon resale. These measures should help keep future resale prices in check, but they may not remove the lottery effect entirely. When the first Plus and Prime flats eventually reach their MOP, their scarcity and strong locations could still support high resale prices if demand remains firm.

Looking ahead, supply will rise sharply. The number of flats reaching MOP is expected to more than double to 13,484 in 2026, before rising further to 18,939 in 2027 and 21,393 in 2028. In total, nearly 54,000 flats will reach MOP from 2026 to 2028, far more than the estimated 34,000 flats from 2023 to 2025.

Mature estates will make up a large share of this new resale supply. More than 8,100 flats in mature estates will reach MOP in 2026, the highest in a decade and about 60 per cent of all MOP flats that year. This could lead to more premium transactions in popular towns.

The towns with the largest number of flats reaching MOP in 2026 include Punggol, Queenstown and Toa Payoh. Punggol will have 3,222 flats reaching MOP, followed by Queenstown with 2,405 and Toa Payoh with 2,133. Strong demand in Queenstown and Toa Payoh could support more million-dollar transactions, while the larger supply in Punggol may give buyers more choices.

At the same time, competition from new flats is expected to intensify. BTO and SBF demand has risen over the past three years, and more than 30,000 Plus and Prime flats have been launched since 2021. More flats are also expected in attractive locations such as Mount Pleasant, the Greater Southern Waterfront and Bayshore. These projects could draw buyers away from prime resale flats.

Potential policy changes may also shift demand. The government is considering raising the BTO income ceiling, possibly from S$14,000 to S$16,000 for couples and families, and from S$7,000 to S$8,000 for singles. If this happens, more higher-income households may become eligible for BTO flats. This could reduce demand for larger and pricier resale flats.

Overall, the HDB resale market is likely to remain stable in 2026. Prices may continue to rise, but at a much slower pace than in recent years. Rising MOP supply, strong BTO launches and policy adjustments should help keep the market from overheating. However, well-located, newer flats in mature estates are still likely to command strong prices, and million-dollar transactions may continue to increase even as the broader market cools.